Are Drone and Bitcoin Signals from the Future?
The gap between the development of technology and policy and system,
Reasons to predict society, not technology and phenomena!

The highlights of the recent successful opening and closing ceremonies of the PyeongChang Olympics were the drone’s cluster flight show that embroidered the night sky splendidly. The appearance of 300 drones being produced by a single engineer in unison with the oryungi and various shapes was reminiscent of an encounter with the future.

The drone show strongly imprinted the development of drone technology on the public’s mind. As it is a technology that is in the spotlight, there are already numerous discussions on drones and related books on the market, from the 4th Industrial Revolution to drone pilot certificates. But unlike the heat, the main story is that drones will become a key technology in the future and the drone industry will develop. In the future, the sky will be filled with drones that deliver goods.’
This is not a prediction of the future, according to Amy Webb, author of “Signals.” Webb argues that these vague and fragmentary predictions are only Nostradamus-style prophecies or SF imaginations, and are not substantially helpful in preparing for the future.

Just as Keynes emphasized the need for an active stimulus by saying, “Long term, we all die,” Amy Webb takes the same position. Future technologies will develop in the long term, and someday flying cars may appear, and even “space movement” of Star Trek may be possible. However, what we need is not an SF imagination that we don’t know when it will be realized, but a concrete social image of the future that will come five years later, 10 years later, and 20 years later. And only then is the study of what is needed to predict the future. Amy Webb explains in a hypothetical scenario how the various butterfly effects that occur when commercial drones currently being discussed in the United States are limited to an altitude of 60 to 120 meters, showing how shortsighted this kind of simple measure is.
Korea has also not been able to conduct more advanced discussions and policy directions.

In the case of Seoul, all areas are set as no drone flight zones except for some Hangang Park, and the competent ministries are different for flight and filming permits. Considering the special security situation in Korea Even so, can the drone industry be fostered in this situation?
We have recently witnessed a situation in which society’s culture, policies, and laws cannot catch up with the development of technology. It’s the bitcoin craze.

Confusion continued from the definition of whether the object called Bitcoin should be viewed as a future technology, as an object of regulation, or whether it is an investment or speculation. While the government was also offbeat by ministries, the “don’t ask” speculation craze continued, and numerous victims continued to fall due to Bitcoin’s sharp drop.
As can be seen in the bitcoin craze, Amy Webb says, future predictions are not just predicting technology development. The web refers to the time when technology has become completely popular and routine as expected arrival time (ETA). The right future prediction becomes the ETA, and when the future reaches us, the structure and patterns of society as a whole, and the necessary adjacency technologies and technologies
It means that you should be able to draw what services, policies and regulations are.

How should the drone flyable altitude and zone be set?
How will the ripple effect of drones proceed? The government and companies need to think about this and alternatives.
As such, future predictions must take into account various variables and situations, and only when they come out like that can we prepare for them.

How to think like a futurist!
The most insightful future prediction methodology for your organization

The book, which combines more detailed data and realistic analysis with curiosity, doubts, and colorful storytelling, by renowned futurist Amy Webb, will be a must-read for those who want to understand the future.
This book is a systematic methodology that evaluates emerging ideas in this era and finds real trends, not flash trends. This book helps us to listen to signals and distinguish what is false noise, telling us what developments today will have long-term consequences for tomorrow (especially when they seem like random ideas on the fringe but eventually converge into one and move into the mainstream).

Through this book, we can learn how to think like futurists and answer important questions. How will advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, and robots personally affect us in the future? How will it affect our workplace and business? What changes ultimately bring to our lives, work, play and mindset, and how should we prepare for them today?
This is where this book is most distinct from other future forecasts. Rather than telling us about the future results, the web presents a detailed methodology step by step how to predict the future: signals: twinkle and long run 4. Amy Webb’s six-step forwarding methodology is practical in that it provides insight into the distinction between imagination and scientific prediction when thinking about the future, while also being applicable to both government and businesses as well as various organizations in society.
The important thing is not to describe the technology that will be developed one day, but to predict when it can be commercialized and to analyze what technologies and services are actually commercialized. And it is now necessary for us to present specific answers that can be designed based on the predicted future.

Six Steps to Predicting the Future
1. Find the perimeter
2. Use cypher models to find hidden patterns
3. Ask the right question to find out the real trend
4. Calculate the estimated arrival time (ETA)
5. Develop scenarios and strategies accordingly
6. Validate established trend countermeasures

Catch the signals of the future in the scattered noise, connect the signals to discover the real trends!
The most important part of predicting the future is to distinguish which is a permanent trend and which is a temporary trend that flashes and disappears.
RIM, who created BlackBerry, made a false prediction and left himself as the head of the trend. On the contrary, the iPhone eventually became part of the future as a enduring trend, despite the numerous flaws of the early model at the time.

Nintendo, which used to produce “Hwatu Pae,” has been flourishing as the world’s best game company for more than 100 years after continuous transformation. IBM, Diebold, Wells Fargo, and 3M also survived changing technologies, industries and markets. This is because all of them prepared quickly for the future and came up with countermeasures.
Just looking at domestic success stories such as the government’s construction of the Gyeongbu Expressway for industrialization and Samsung’s decision to invest in semiconductors, it can be seen that the success and failure of the organization are divided.
Amy Webb shows an example of a ‘car flying in the sky’ to explain what a real trend is. We often regard flying cars as symbols of the future. But the Web is flying signals: glitter and long run 5 cars are the wrong predictions for the future, and the reason is that flying cars can never be a future trend in terms of technology, economics, and social aspects. As if “moving sidewalks” were in the spotlight as a means of transportation for the future a century ago.

On the contrary, self-driving cars have elements that can become future trends. The pace of growth of various technologies is the most important, but social perception and events also have a great influence. This is because technology does not evolve alone in a vacuum. Amy Webb said that there is a need to consider the distribution of wealth, education, government, politics, public health, demographics, economy, environment, media, media, etc
Factors tell us how to distinguish which is noise and which is a signal from the real future. Amy Webb has made a case for Uber
Explain that Uber’s real trend is “service-type transportation,” and verify how this trend is sustainable as the next step.
How come so smart people couldn’t accept the trend of personal computers? How could we not predict that the Internet would be very successful, and not know that a new computer would penetrate deep into our daily lives?

Establish an effective strategy by calculating the time the future arrives.
Re-engineer the future by verifying the strategy.
Amy Webb explains how an organization’s future strategy can be established and validated through ETA identification that predicts when the technology or service can evolve with the development of related technologies, Larry Page’s toothbrush test to determine “whether we use the technology more than once or twice a day and make life better.”
What Amy Webb, who explores future predictions with such strict standards, paradoxically emphasizes the most is not just to predict the future, but to reversely design the future. A case in point of reverse engineering the future is Kennedy’s “Moon Landing Plan.” The U.S. government has finally realized the necessary technologies and scenarios for the moon landing. For Kennedy, the moon landing was a “preferred future,” and strong goals and momentum transformed the “possible future” of landing on the moon into a “potential future.”
If predictions and strategies for the future are well prepared, each company and government can make their preferred future into a real future.
And here, human insights that are impossible with current big data and artificial intelligence are needed. This is because computers and algorithms cannot evaluate abstract and qualitative data. The future in which Amy Webb shows Signals: Twinkle and Long Run 6 through Signals is not simply a passive object that occurs over time. The fact that the future is not decided is why we have to predict and design the future to create the future we want.
The future is not just a star shining in the distance.