Mauro F. Guillén
He is a global expert in global trends and international business strategy. He is currently a professor of international business administration at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He received a PhD in Sociology from Yale University in the United States and a PhD in Political Economy from the University of Oviedo in Spain. His research on how changes in the population and economy affect the development of technology and vice versa is considered to show the most original steps.
Based on such rigorous research, his lectures showing the flow of wealth and power in the world were attended by more than 100,000 people at COURSERA. In addition, more than 2,000 students were gathered in the recently launched online course on the Corona 19 pandemic, ‘Epidemics, Natural Disasters, Geopolitics: Managing Global Business and Uncertainty.’ He has contributed to the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist, appears on NPR, CNBC, and CNN, and is also an advisor to various companies and organizations.
『2030 』 is a collection of research on the world 10 years later. It predicts the world of 2030 by looking at how the huge currents today affect companies, workers, and consumers from various angles.
“It is a critical point. It is a time when all these waves of change are predicted to aggregate and explode.”
The next 10 years when the central axis moves and the world order is reorganized,
What should we do in a completely new and unfamiliar situation?
Which country will lead the next revolution of the 4th industrial revolution? How will the decline in the birth rate and the aging population go hand in hand with Corona 19? What opportunities are hidden between the millennials born in the digital age and the silver generation, the world’s largest consumer group? How can cities, which are growing rapidly in size and number, overcome climate change and polarization?
『2030 Axis Transformation』 shows how changes in progress affect each other and create a new world. Professor Mauro Guillen Wharton School, a world-renowned expert in global trends and international business strategy, predicts that the world will pass a critical critical point in 2030, when major megatrends in the fields of population, society, economy and technology converge.
The familiar world is rapidly disappearing from a new and perplexing reality driven by new laws. Without us realizing it, in most countries, the older population will outnumber the younger population, and women will own more property than men. The middle class market in Asia will be bigger than the US and Europe combined. We will also be surrounded by more industrial robots than factory workers, more computers than human brains, more sensing devices than human eyes, and more diverse currencies than the number of countries. That is the world of 2030. (Page 10)
Maybe the time left for us is less than 10 years. This is because the Corona 19 pandemic that has recently hit the world amplifies and accelerates change. How soon the shock and confusion that will come will affect our lives and work, and if we cannot see where the new wealth and power will move, anyone can be eliminated in an instant. Based on scientific research and empirical examples, this book vividly portrays the world 10 years from now and points out key divergences. This book shows the dangers and opportunities for a new beginning, and suggests strategies to overcome an uncertain future.
What changes are going on now that will last and what will disappear?
Revealing the fundamental forces that create the future by crossing economics, geopolitics, and sociology!
▶’The center of the world economy is moving from the Atlantic to Africa and India.’ Currently, when a newborn baby is born in developed countries, nine are born in emerging industrial and developing countries such as China, India and Africa. If this trend continues, in 2030, South Asia, including India, has the largest population in the world, followed by Africa and East Asia. In addition, a dual revolution between agriculture and industry is taking place in Africa, driving economic growth. Amid these changes, emerging middle classes in China, India and Africa are setting new standards for the market as consumers, producers and investors.
By 2030, the size of middle-class consumers in emerging industrial markets will be more than five times that of the United States, Europe, and Japan, and more than double that calculated from 2020. It is not long before we will see the activities of the Wang family in China, the Xing family in India, or the Mwanggi family in Africa, not the Simpsons. … … Major products around the world will be made not to reflect the tastes of American consumers, but to the aspirations of the middle class in developing countries.
▶’People over 60 enjoy the most productive and vibrant life on the planet.’ Older people are more likely to become adopters of new technologies ahead of millennials. “Grandpa/Grandma Iron Man” equipped with a mechanical exoskeleton goes to work with young people. In his spare time, he uses virtual reality equipment to go around famous tourist spots with his friends. Due to the nature of the life cycle, they prefer to use the subscription service instead of purchasing consumer goods, and rent an extra room or car through the sharing platform and earn additional income. As millennials enter their retirement period in 2040 and this trend intensifies, the conventional dichotomy of generation and age quickly disintegrates.
Contrary to popular belief, millennials are not a fast-growing consumer base globally. In fact, there is another generation where consumption is increasing rapidly. Now they own at least half of the world’s assets, and in the United States they make up more than 80 percent. These are the generations over 60.
▶’Women are reborn as beings that dominate the world.’ The era when men owned and managed most of their wealth and power is coming to an end, and more and more women are advancing into the economic, political, and social fields to rise to the top. In Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, countries that break through existing discrimination and actively utilize women’s labor force are growing rapidly. As women become richer than men, the asset market is also reorganized according to their spending and investment tendencies. Entrepreneurs and politicians who don’t understand women’s preferences and choices lose their place.
“Women once again try their luck, men once again take risks.” Your attitude to risk affects most options, including spending and saving. It also affects the types of investments you think will help you meet your economic goals. The argument that there would have been no financial crisis in 2008 if there were Lehman’Sisters’ rather than Lehman’Brothers’ is by no means a false story.
▶ “Billions of computers, sensing devices and robots surround us.” Nanotechnology and 3D printing provide a way to tackle the ecological crisis in urban areas where 60 percent of the world’s population lives. E-books are used to educate Africa’s growing population from a splendid resurrection. Cooperative consumption and asset sharing through the Internet solves the problem of resource scarcity and creates a new social class. Blockchain technology helps them divide and trade everything they want, from tangible and intangible property to jobs.
Today’s changes, from virtual reality to 3D printing and from artificial intelligence to nanotechnology, would be exaggerated when compared to the Cambrian explosion. But these new technologies offer hope that they can tackle the tough challenges of poverty, disease, environmental destruction, climate change and social isolation. It is also creating a new class of young entrepreneurs with foresight.
▶’Finally, Corona 19 will advance the future.’ In the recession, people postpone childbirth even more. Enterprises and factories accelerate the automation and intelligence of the production process. Isolation requires rapid adaptation to the digital environment and advanced technology. The polarization in income, education, and health issues intensifies. We can face future challenges earlier than we think.
All these new trends are reinforcing and adapting to the situation threatened by the coronavirus is unfolding every day before our eyes. The declining birth rate, new dynamics between generations, and new technological trends and trends are being strengthened and accelerated thanks to the pandemic. We have to look at the core of a really important problem. … … This is because such changes or trends will become an irreversible trend for the remaining 10 years and change our lives.
“The pessimist finds difficulty in every opportunity, and the optimist finds opportunity in every difficulty.”
Preoccupy new opportunities and wealth with a broader reading of the flow of change!
Tata Motors, a world-class automobile company in India, has launched the “Tata Nano,” a compact compact car worth 2 million won, targeting the emerging middle class in the country. As the economy developed and income levels rose, people thought they would ride cars instead of motorcycles. However, people turned away from “Tata Nano”. “When I go to play with my friends or go to a decent seat, I would rather stay at home if the car is “Tata Nano”.” Young consumers tried to get imported cars such as Suzuki, Hyundai, and Toyota even with debt.
“Tata Nano” failed because it did not properly read the desires of the young middle class in India. In addition to the fact that their income level has risen, if they take into account that they value the value of self-expression and are free from the frugal and practical culture of their parents’ generation, and that they envy the’Western middle class life’ seen on television and on the Internet. Would have changed.
To reach 2030, we need to open our hearts to countless new ideas. While sticking to existing beliefs and behaviors, it is easy to think of getting help to monitor the ever-increasing life expectancy, aging population, and the impact of artificial intelligence. Considering the fact that there are so many factors that move this world,’already proven thoughts’ actually means’out of date thoughts’. Therefore, in an era of constant emergence of new technologies, it is always necessary to accept new perspectives on jobs, retirement, or future problems.
The future appears only to those who see it further and larger. It is difficult to realize the potential hidden in each of the changes currently underway. Even for the millennials, which companies pay the most attention to today, if you look inside them outside of superficial generalization, you can find various subgroups defined by income, education level, gender, etc. When you break away from the fragmentary and schematic framework and try to understand the intertwined relationships broadly, you can survive in a new and unfamiliar world that you will face in 10 years. 『2030 Axis Transformation』 provides a macroscopic view of the period of great transformation by sharply digging into the links between countries, generations, classes, and technologies.
African population growth, immigrants, automation or cryptocurrencies are hitting most of the American people. These are elements of development that seem dangerous, full of challenges and threats. Of course, there is evidence, but if you are afraid, you may not be able to adapt properly to your new environment. Cortes’ example shows the lesson that we can overcome fear by looking further away. The further from the land, the more we can move towards the new horizon.